The Dividend QuestionIN · 15–29

Sources

Every source cited anywhere on this site, in full bibliographic form, grouped by module. Access status is marked because a citation you cannot open is not much of a citation.

Demographic frame

Population Projections for India and States 2011–2036
Registrar General of India / MoHFW · 2020 report
nhm.gov.in/New_Updates_2018/Report_Population_Projection_2019.pdf
Published 2020; predates the delayed Census.
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Population Projections for India and States 2011–2036
Registrar General of India / MoHFW · 2020 report
nhm.gov.in/New_Updates_2018/Report_Population_Projection_2019.pdf
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Youth in India 2022 — Statistical Profile
MoSPI · 2022
mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/publication_reports/Youth_in_India_2022/Stati
Good landing citation for the “371 million” framing.
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Module 01 — Flourishing

The Global Flourishing Study: Study Profile and Initial Results on Flourishing
Nature Mental Health (Harvard HFH / Baylor / Gallup / COS) · 2025
www.nature.com/articles/s44220-025-00423-5
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A comparative “report card” wellbeing assessment of 22 countries in the Global Flourishing Study
Discover Global Society (Springer) · 2026
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s44282-026-00502-7
Not in the Nature flagship paper — cite DOI 10.1007/s44282-026-00502-7 for SFI/OFI ranks.
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A comparative “report card” wellbeing assessment of 22 countries
Discover Global Society (Springer) · 2026
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s44282-026-00502-7
Joint-last overall (average rank 19), tied with South Africa.
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Global Flourishing Study flagship paper
Nature Mental Health · 2025
www.nature.com/articles/s44220-025-00423-5
Pattern is reported; no India-specific age curve with values is published.
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GFS flagship paper, country supplementary tables
Nature Mental Health / PMC · 2025
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12165845/
From supplementary country tables, not the main text — a reversal of the global pattern.
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Global Flourishing Study
Harvard Human Flourishing Program · ongoing
hfh.fas.harvard.edu/global-flourishing-study
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Module 02 — Jobs & Skills

Periodic Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2025
MoSPI / NSO · 2025
www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2246009&reg=3&lang=1
The 2025 revamp (calendar-year cycle, new sampling) breaks strict comparability with pre-2025 editions.
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Periodic Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2025
MoSPI / NSO · 2025
www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2246009&reg=3&lang=1
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Periodic Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2025
MoSPI / NSO · 2025
www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2246009&reg=3&lang=1
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PLFS 2025 figures, reported via Forbes India
MoSPI / NSO · 2025
www.forbesindia.com/article/news/indias-jobless-rate-holds-steady-but-graduate
More than three times the national average rate.
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Periodic Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2025
MoSPI / NSO · 2025
www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2246009&reg=3&lang=1
Always state the age band — 24.9% is 15–59, not youth-only.
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Periodic Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2025
MoSPI / NSO · 2025
www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2246009&reg=3&lang=1
“Formal” only — do not conflate with the ~21% “any training” figure (js-07).
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PLFS / NSSO detailed training tables
MoSPI / NSO · 2023–24
www.mospi.gov.in/
Broader definition: includes informal, hereditary, self-learned and on-the-job training. Link is to the MoSPI table portal pending a direct table URL.
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India Skills Report 2026 (13th edition)
Wheebox / ETS, CII, AICTE, AIU · 2026
wheebox.com/assets/pdf/ISR_Report_2026.pdf
Assessed employability, not employment. Supersedes ISR 2025.
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India Skills Report 2026
Wheebox / ETS · 2026
wheebox.com/assets/pdf/ISR_Report_2026.pdf
Prior year had men ahead (53.46% / 47.53%) — do not use the old figure.
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Module 03 — Education

Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2024
Pratham / ASER Centre · 2024
www.business-standard.com/education/news/aser-2024-india-education-report-lear
Highest since ASER began. Seek the official asercentre.org PDF for a first-party link.
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Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2024
Pratham / ASER Centre · 2024
pratham.org.uk/unveiling-prathams-annual-status-of-education-report-2024-trans
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Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2024
Pratham / ASER Centre · 2024
pratham.org.uk/unveiling-prathams-annual-status-of-education-report-2024-trans
Categories overlap — not a zero-sum split.
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Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2024
Pratham / ASER Centre · 2024
pratham.org.uk/unveiling-prathams-annual-status-of-education-report-2024-trans
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Module 04 — Digital Life

Digital 2026: India
DataReportal / Kepios · 2026 report
datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-india
Proprietary Kepios estimate of identities, not a government count of people.
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Digital 2026: India
DataReportal / Kepios · 2026
datareportal.com/reports/digital-2026-india
Corrects the widely-quoted “3.2 hours”, which the source does not support.
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A Cross-sectional Study of Mental Health Effects of Excessive Screen Time and Social Media Use among Indian Adolescents and Young Adults
Journal of Nature and Science of Medicine · 2024
journals.lww.com/jnsm/fulltext/2024/07030/a_cross_sectional_study_of_mental_he
Use for correlation, sleep-mediation and protective-factor claims only. Does NOT report the 83% or 3.8-hour figures.
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Prevalence of excess screen time among secondary school children in rural India
PMC · 2024
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10876028/
A separate study and sample from dl-03 — cite independently.
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National Mental Health Survey of India, 2015–16 (Summary)
NIMHANS / MoHFW · 2015–16
indianmhs.nimhans.ac.in/phase1/Docs/Summary.pdf
Treat 150 million as a floor, not a current figure. NMHS-2 is not yet the citable national baseline.
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Module 05 — Political Awareness & Civic Engagement

Indian Youth in the Post-Pandemic World
Lokniti-CSDS / Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung · 2023
www.lokniti.org/content/indian-youth-in-the-post-pandemic-world
9,316 respondents across 18 states. lokniti.org hosts only a partial chapter PDF; use the landing page plus the KAS proceedings PDF.
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National Election Study 2024 Pre-Poll, as presented by CSDS
Lokniti-CSDS (published via The Hindu) · 2024
www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-sabha/csds-lokniti-2024-pre-poll-survey-remarka
The published headline is 79% overall; the 81/73 age split comes from the survey owner's own presentation, not a downloadable crosstab. Free mirror: hindutvawatch.org.
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Module 06 — Radicalization & Online Belonging

Locked in echoes: unveiling the dynamics of social media echo chambers and Hindu radicalization targeting Muslim youth in Delhi
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (Springer Nature) · 2025
www.nature.com/articles/s41599-025-04638-w
Interview-based study at Delhi universities. No prevalence estimate is offered or implied.
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Digitally Enabled Radicalisation and Violent Extremism in India (Issue Brief)
MP-IDSA · 2026
idsa.in/publisher/issuebrief/digitally-enabled-radicalisation-and-violent-extr
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Gen-Z and Reconfiguration of the Violent Extremist Landscape (Issue Brief)
MP-IDSA · 2025
idsa.in/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Issue-Brief-Ms-Saman-Ayesha-Kidwai-30-Decem
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Module 07 — Stay or Go

MEA / MoE data tabled in Parliament
Ministry of External Affairs · 2024
www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/over-1-3-mn-i
A cumulative registration stock. Keep separate from annual departures (sg-02).
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Bureau of Immigration data via Lok Sabha reply
Ministry of Education · 2022
news.careers360.com/over-7-5-lakh-indian-students-went-study-abroad-in-2022-68
Different dataset from sg-01 — do not merge or add the two.
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Who prefers to stay? Voluntary immobility among youth in Ethiopia, India, and Vietnam
Schewel & Fransen, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies · 2022
pure.uva.nl/ws/files/48804339/WP_161_Schewel_Fransen.pdf
Free working-paper mirror; the journal version is at doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2022.2092085.
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