The demographic frame

The dividend argument is arithmetic before it is politics: a large working-age share relative to dependants creates a window in which output can grow faster than consumption. India's window is open now and it is closing on a published schedule.

These projections were published in 2020 by the Technical Group under the Registrar General of India, and they predate the delayed Census. They are the rigorous Indian-government citation for the "371 million" framing that is more often attributed to UN agencies.